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11 de novembro de 2024 às 14:49 #1644169
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During financial disaster week, Barack Obama took the lead over John McCain in national polls, by 2.3 percent in the Real Clear Politics average. But the reshuffling of the political deck seems to have opened up more states for McCain and have closed off some states for Obama, specifically, in the northern tier of the country: call it the Frozen North. Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Washington seem to be in play now. Preconvention p [url=https://www.cup-stanley.de]stanley becher[/url] olls showed Obama well ahead in each; postconvention polls show him leading by only a few points. That s 31 electoral votes on the table. And North Dakota, Montana, and Alaska seem to be out of play. Obama wa [url=https://www.cup-stanley.co.uk]stanley flask[/url] s competitive there in pre-convention polls, though there weren t many of them; he s well behind in postconvention polls. That s nine electoral votes off the ta [url=https://www.stanley-cups.it]stanley thermos[/url] ble. Net advantage to McCain: 40 electoral votes. The Obama campaign has evidently reached the same conclusion: It is closing its North Dakota offices and the sending staffers to Minnesota and Wisconsin.The obvious explanation, and not just for Alaska, is Sarah Palin. My working hypothesis is that Palin has boosted McCain in rural/small town areas of the Frozen North up toward the levels of support that George W. Bush won there. Remember that Bush, while unusually weak for a Republican in affluent suburbs in major metropolitan areas, was unusually strong for a Republican in rural/small town areas. In Montana, Bush 43 in 2000 won 58 percent-38 percent; Bush 41 in 1988 won 52 percent-46 percent -
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